Tuley: Week 11 NFL ATS picks (2024)

LAS VEGAS -- In a disappointing season, last week was even more so.

I really felt NFL Week 10 was going to go well for the underdogs, and I was right, as 'dogs went 7-6 ATS. But I was totally off in backing the wrong ones. In fact, of the six losing 'dogs, I landed on five of them as I went 1-5-1 ATS. The push was on the Texans plus-3 in their 27-24 loss to the Cardinals and the silver lining is that it went to 3.5 and even 4 over the weekend, so I won my personal wager -- and so did anyone else taking them -- but it's not as though I'd be doing cartwheels here if I had gone 2-5.

The worst part was that out of my unofficial picks -- labeled as "pool plays" -- that went 4-2 ATS, there were three underdogs (Jaguars, Rams and Panthers) that I recommended but wasn't smart enough to see they were stronger plays than my so-called "best bets." All three not only covered but pulled outright upsets. I always try to be selective in finding the most live underdogs, but I think that last week I felt I was having too many plays (seven of the 12 Sunday and Monday games). I always go back to the mantra that "a play is a play," and I think I departed from that a little by not including those other 'dogs.

This week, I really like the card again as I think a lot of favorites have been overvalued. I hope the 'dogs will be barking (or at least the ones I'm taking).

Last week: 1-5-1 ATS | Year to date: 30-35-1 (46.2 percent) ATS

Programming Note: I'm no longer eligible for ESPN.com's "Streak for the Cash" contest, but they've asked me to suggest some plays. This is different from picking games against the spread (especially because they mostly have you pick games straight up, and the games are closer to pick 'em), but it's all about win percentages/odds, so I'll tackle those at the end of the column.

Note: Consensus pick percentages from ESPN Pick Center as of early Friday morning.

Matchup: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Falcons minus-1
Public consensus pick: 56 percent picked Falcons

Public perception: Neither team has been good to bettors overall this year (Buccaneers 3-6 ATS, Falcons 2-7 ATS, according to NFL ATS standings in our "Opening Line" column). Earlier this season, the Falcons would have been getting more support in this matchup with the line so low. However the Bucs have covered the past two weeks, including Monday night's home upset of the Dolphins, so there's more people willing to back the Bucs.

Wiseguys' view: Vegas bookmakers have said for years that the top game in the Don Best betting rotation gets a disproportionate amount of action, but not even that is helping this game generate much buzz. Some may tease the Bucs over a touchdown, but otherwise this game won't have much effect on the sports books' bottom line one way or another.

Tuley's Take: I've been waiting all year for the Falcons to turn things around, but I'm not going to lay even a point with them here, even though they beat the Bucs 31-23 at home four weeks ago (and I usually like teams that won the first meeting to complete the sweep). I'm also not buying that the Bucs are consistent enough to back.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Falcons).

Matchup: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills minus-1
Public consensus pick: 71 percent picked Jets

Public perception: The ESPN PickCenter shows the kind of support I expected when I wrote in the "Opening Line" column that we could see a change of favorite in this game. The Jets are in the wild-card race (currently sixth in the AFC) and just added safety Ed Reed.

Wiseguys' view: The Bills were a popular and successful underdog play earlier this season, but they now have three straight ATS losses (tied for a league-worst with the Falcons) and not getting wiseguy support here. The Jets have become a wiseguy favorite (helped by their 6-3 ATS record, tied for second in the NFL) with a tough defense and the steady improvement of Geno Smith along with Chris Ivory emerging in the running game.

Tuley's Take: Here's another rematch, as the Jets beat the Bills 27-20 in Week 3. However, New York opened as an underdog (though obviously just due to the game being in Buffalo). I like the 'dog in this spot for a lot of the reasons stated above and would grab it before it crosses pick 'em.

The pick: Jets.

Matchup: Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Lions minus-2.5
Public consensus pick: 80 percent picked Lions

Public perception: The public is all over the first-place Lions. The Steelers, long a public team, haven't been consistent enough to get bettors back on their bandwagon.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps are more split on this game. Some like the Lions as a short favorite, but plenty of others offer resistance with the Steelers as a home underdog. They also look like a popular teaser play getting more than a touchdown with the added points.

Tuley's Take: The Steelers defense, while not the shutdown unit of years past, has been coming around, though it's a lot different trying to shut down Stevie Johnson than it is Calvin Johnson. I lean to the home 'dog here, but not enough to make the Steelers an official play (maybe if getting the full field goal).

The pick: Pass (pool play: Steelers).

Matchup: Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles minus-4.5
Public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Redskins

Public perception: Action is split at the current line of minus-4.5 (as of this writing at least), though obviously there was more support for the Eagles when the line opened at minus-3 and minus-3.5 depending on the book.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps, especially those who think the Eagles are better with Nick Foles than Michael Vick, have been rewarded with them the last two weeks. They also were on the Eagles early this week but less likely to lay the bigger price now.

Tuley's Take: This is a rematch of Week 1 when the Eagles ran and passed all over the Redskins. I'm not going to look at the' dog here, as I also believe the Eagles are the right side.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Eagles).

Matchup: San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Chargers minus-1.5
Public consensus pick: 85 percent picked Chargers

Public perception: Both these teams have been pretty hard to figure out. They look good one week, then disappoint the next. The public is all over the Chargers here, though I'm guessing it's more of a reaction to seeing the Dolphins lose to the Buccaneers because the Chargers have lost two in a row themselves.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps generally like to look at home underdogs, and they have plenty to choose from this week as this is fifth of six on the week (starting with the Titans pushing with plus-3 against the Colts Thursday night) and the fourth in Sunday's early games.

Tuley's Take: I've been high on the Chargers most of the year and they've mostly been good to me, but despite rallying to make their 28-20 loss to the Broncos last week look respectable, they didn't look good. While I'm ready to bail on them, I'm not willing to do it with the Dolphins, who also have come back to earth, losing five of their past six after a 3-0 start.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Chargers).

Matchup: Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears

Spread: Bears minus-3
Public consensus pick: 52 percent picked Bears

Public perception: Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives, and the public is mostly split on this matchup. The defending Super Bowl champion Ravens dominated the Bengals last week and nearly gave it away before winning in overtime, but some are wondering if they can go on a run like last year.

Wiseguys' view: Josh McCown gets the start for the Bears, but oddsmakers didn't make any big adjustments as he has been every bit as effective as Jay Cutler. This line opened Bears minus-2.5 at the LVH SuperBook in Vegas and minus-3.5 at some offshore books. The sharps took those out and the line settled at minus-3.

Tuley's Take: If the Ravens that showed up in the first half against the Bengals show up again in Chicago, they should take this. My concern is the Ravens didn't look like defending champs in their past two road trips to Pittsburgh and Cleveland.

The pick: Ravens.

Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals minus-6
Public consensus pick: 62 percent picked Bengals

Public perception: The Bengals continue to get the public's support despite losing their past two games to the Dolphins and Ravens. Nope, the Browns don't get much respect even after covering against the Chiefs and then upsetting those same Ravens (plus they beat the Bengals earlier this year).

Wiseguys' view: This will be a popular teaser from both the public and the sharps, as the Bengals just have to win the game. But when it comes to the spread, more sharps will be on the Browns.

Tuley's Take: We have the winner of the first meeting getting points here (though part of that is the change in home fields), and I love that. Jason Campbell is doing the job and keeping the Browns competitive. They have to think they can get right back in the divisional race with a win that would bring them within one game of the Bengals and also give them the tiebreaker.

The pick: Browns.

Matchup: Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans

Spread: Texans minus-7
Public consensus pick: 60 percent picked Texans

Public perception: Considering how many bettors the Texans have burned this season, it's surprising to see them getting this much support. However Terrelle Pryor is questionable for the Raiders, so this has been inching toward minus-7.5.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps aren't going to lay more than the touchdown with the Texans, as they have found countless ways to give away games this year. Strangely, the Texans have only failed to outgain their opponents in two games this year (against the Chiefs three weeks ago and last week against the Cardinals) and those are the only two games they have covered.

Tuley's Take: The higher this line goes, the more I'm leaning toward taking the Raiders. I do wish I had a definitive answer on Pryor's status as of this writing.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Raiders).

Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Cardinals minus-7.5
Public consensus pick: 75 percent picked Cardinals

Public perception: Jacksonville getting its first win of the season doesn't appear to have gathered them any more support at the betting windows. The Cardinals didn't cover last week against the closing line of minus-4 against the Texans, but cashed for early backers of minus-2.5.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps have liked the Cardinals defense all season and bet them early this week at minus-6.5 and 7, but they're less likely to lay more than a touchdown on the road. We'll probably see more sharps jump in on the underdog.

Tuley's Take: As mentioned in the intro, I was bummed at myself for not backing the Jaguars last week. I didn't expect the offense to do as well without Justin Blackmon, but Cecil Shorts stepped up. While I do like this Arizona team, I don't think they should be laying more than a touchdown on the road to anyone.

The pick: Jaguars.

Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos minus-8
Public consensus pick: 65 percent picked Chiefs

Public perception: This game has been flexed to the Sunday night slot, and with good reason considering the AFC West lead is on the line (and potential home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs). The public is solidly on the Chiefs, plus the points.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps also are on the Chiefs and have gobbled up some of the plus-8.5s that were available. This is the league's top scoring offense against the top scoring defense, and wiseguys will usually side with the better defense when getting points.

Tuley's Take: No one is expecting Peyton Manning to sit out with the injured ankle he suffered late in last week's win over the Chargers, but the fact remains that his offensive line isn't protecting him as well as it did earlier in the season. Now they face the Chiefs pass rush with Manning even less mobile than usual.

The pick: Chiefs.

Matchup: Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks minus-12.5
Public consensus pick: 62 percent picked Seahawks

Public perception: With the Seahawks at home, there's little resistance from people looking to back the Vikings. It's no surprise the public is on Seattle.

Wiseguys' view: Despite the majority of bets on the Seahawks, the number has been trending downward from a high of minus-13.5 to the current consensus line of minus-12.5. That's usually a good sign that the sharps are on the other side.

Tuley's Take: Despite cooling off a little, teams with extra rest after playing Thursday games are 12-6 ATS this year, so that bodes well for the Vikings. But I'm even more encouraged by the fact the Seahawks have failed to cover their past two home games, both as double-digit favorites over the Titans and Buccaneers.

The pick: Vikings.

Matchup: San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Saints minus-3
Public consensus pick: 87 percent picked Saints

Public perception: There's no stopping people from backing the Saints at home, especially if they keep winning and covering, which they've done on all five home games so far this season and 14 straight with Sean Payton on the sideline.

Wiseguys' view: There definitely are wiseguys on both sides of this matchup with those riding the Saints' hot streak, especially at home, while others still view the 49ers as the top (or right near the top) team in the league with all things considered.

Tuley's Take: The 49ers were arguably the hottest team in the league with five straight wins and covers before getting shut down in a 10-9 loss to the Panthers. But I think they bounce back from that and get back to posting 30 points or more in what should be a shootout.

The pick: 49ers.

Matchup: Green Bay Packers at New York Giants

Spread: Giants minus-5
Public consensus pick: 54 percent picked Giants

Public perception: The public betting numbers differ at a number of bet-tracking sites. When this line was as high as the Giants minus-6.5, the action was certainly lopsided on the Packers' side, even with third-stringer Scott Tolzien getting the start for Green Bay. It has evened out as the line has dropped.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps were also with the public on betting the Packers early but less involved with the line in the no man's land of minus-5.

Tuley's Take: I was disappointed the Packers didn't get the job done against the Eagles last week, but mostly liked what I saw from Tolzien (except for the costly interception at the goal line). The Giants have won three straight to revive thoughts of making a run at the playoffs, but those were against the Vikings, a struggling Eagles team and the Raiders (in which they didn't cover).

The pick: Packers.

Matchup: New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Panthers minus-2.5
Public consensus pick: 66 percent picked Patriots

Public perception: The Panthers are gaining a lot of respect from sharps and squares alike, but that can't overcome the public seeing the Patriots getting points.

Wiseguys' view: This was pick 'em on the advance line at the LVH a week ago before the Panthers' win over the 49ers, so the move to minus-2.5 was made by the oddsmakers. If the books have any teaser liability from Sunday, it'll probably all be tied up to the Patriots.

Tuley's Take: I'm liking the Patriots in this spot as well, but just like the Titans on Thursday night (or the Steelers versus the Lions on the Sunday card), it's hard to take just plus-2.5 in the NFL when the game could very easily come down to a field goal.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Patriots).

Streak for the Cash

When playing this contest, it's doesn't make sense to pick a lot of underdogs, as you don't get any extra points for doing that. So my suggested games will usually be favorites where I haven't been able to make a strong case for the underdog.

Best bet: Eagles over Redskins

As stated before, they usually pick games that are around pick 'em, and this was closer to a 3-point spread when they decided to use it in this week's "Streak for the Cash" lineup. However it's now it's up to minus-4.5 and presents a lot of value in this type of contest.

Confidence meter: 66.7 percent (which is right around the no-vig money line of Eagles minus-200 to win straight up).

Saints over 49ers

I'm conflicted here because I picked the 49ers to cover the spread in the main part of this column. Now, I would probably pass on this, and would advise looking elsewhere if you've already built a streak. But if you're starting over, it would be hard to pass up the Saints at home in a straight-up situation with their 14-game home winning streak under Sean Payton.

Confidence meter: 50 percent (personally, since I give the edge to the 49ers with the points, but 61.5 percent if going by the no-vig money line of minus-160).