Bleacher Report's Expert Week 11 NFL Picks (2024)

Following a strong week of NFL picks with five underdogwinners, Bleacher Report's experts looked at the Week 11 games, and they canhear a few dogs barking again. Is it time to fade a couple of the league's best teams?

Before we jump into Week 11 picks, check out theexpert standings with last week’s records in parentheses. Keep an eye on O'Donnell, who's pulled into third place after an exceptionally good week.

T-1.Davenport: 78-67-5 (8-6)

T-1.Moton: 78-67-5 (8-6)

3.O'Donnell: 74-71-5 (12-2)

4.Ivory: 72-73-5 (8-6)

5.Knox: 69-76-5 (9-5)

6.Sobleski: 66-79-5 (8-6)

Consensuspicks: 76-61-5 (10-3)

Linesare from DraftKings asof Wednesday, Nov. 16, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info.Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the ActionNetwork. ATS records are provided by TeamRankings.

Editor's Note: Titans defeated the Packers 27-17 on Thursday night.

Similarto the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who beat the Los Angeles Rams on their final drivein Week 9, the Green Bay Packers may have won a game that can spur a midseasonturnaround.

Lastweek, the Packers topped the Dallas Cowboys 31-28 in overtime at Lambeau Field.With its highest-scoring output of the 2022 campaign, Green Bay had a balancedoffensive attack. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdowns torookie second-round wideout Christian Watson, who had a breakout performance,and running back Aaron Jones rushed for 138 yards and a touchdown.

Canthe Packers sustain that momentum against another top-tier opponent at home? O'Donnelldoesn't think so.

"Howquickly things can turn, eh? Last week, I went lone wolf with Green Bay whilesaying 'the Packers are not a good football team right now'. Their upsetwin over the Cowboys was obviously no surprise to me, but there's nothing theyshowed that makes me believe they've truly turned things around. They had theirweek last week, and now I'll ride with the better football team in theTennessee Titans, especially getting points in a game I think they'll winoutright.

"Tennessee'sthree losses this season are to the Giants, Bills and Chiefs, with two of thosegames decided by four total points. Yes, this is a short week road game, butoddsmakers must see something very differently with Green Bay than I do."

Predictions

Davenport: Titans

Ivory: Packers

Knox: Packers

Moton: Packers

O'Donnell: Titans

Sobleski: Titans

Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Titans 23, Packers 20

TheBuffalo Bills came into the 2022 season as one of the top Super Bowl favorites.While they still have the best odds (+400)to win the title, the club must weather a midseason storm.

Afterback-to-back three-point losses with six turnovers in those contests, Buffalo,specifically quarterback Josh Allen, must focus on ball security to get the mostout of offensive possessions. Since Week 8, the Bills signal-caller has thrown forthree touchdowns and six interceptions and lost one of three fumbles on a botched snap.

Withinclementweather in the forecast for the Buffalo area, Knox put on his meteorologisthat when he picked the Cleveland Browns to cover the spread.

"How can I possibly back the Browns after their defense playedwith as much life as an unmanned-football squad last week? Simply put, this oneis all about the line. I don't see Cleveland actually winning here, but I thinkit can make things closer than many expect.

"Allen is dealing with an elbow injury and has turned into aturnover machine as of late. That's part of the equation. The otherpiece is a Buffalo run defense that has surrendered 529 yards over the pastthree games. Cleveland can run the ball, and the weather could be ripe for a ground-oriented game. Cold temperatures, wind and snow are in theBuffalo forecast this weekend, which could lead to a low-scoring andrelatively close contest."

Predictions

Davenport: Bills

Ivory: Browns

Knox: Browns

Moton: Bills

O’Donnell: Browns

Sobleski: Browns

Consensus: Browns +8.5

Score Prediction: Bills 26, Browns 21

Overthe last two weeks, the Detroit Lions have picked up a couple of division winsin a different fashion. They limited the Green Packers to nine points withthree takeaways and then outscored the Chicago Bears 31-30 in an earlyafternoon Midwest thriller last Sunday.

Mostof our experts took the better team in the New York Giants, who get the customarythree-point nod for home favorites from oddmakers, though Sobleski chose tostand alone with the Lions, who have impressed him in recent weeks.

“Don'tlook now, but the Lions are on a two-game winning streak with relativelyimpressive wins against the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears. Interestingly,Detroit looked much better defensively during both of those outings. Despiteclaiming the league's worst defense, the Lions picked off Aaron Rodgers threetimes and held the Bears offense to 261 yards, if you take outJustin Fields' wizardry when it comes to evading pressure and creating as arunner.

“Granted, Daniel Jones is an athletic quarterback, but his ability torun shouldn't be anywhere near as damaging considering Fields has been historicallygood as of late. If Detroit slows down running back Saquon Barkley, thisgame becomes a tossup. After all, Jones' average of 177.3 passing yards pergame ranks29th overall.”

Predictions

Davenport: Giants

Ivory: Giants

Knox: Giants

Moton: Giants

O’Donnell: Giants

Sobleski: Lions

Consensus:Giants -3

Score Prediction: Giants 28, Lions23

In threestarts against the New England Patriots, New York Jets quarterback ZachWilson has thrown for two touchdowns and seven interceptions. In order for himto get over the New England hump, he has to take better care of the football,or else, Gang Green can take the ball out of his hands and grind down its divisionrival with the ground game.

Fortunatelyfor the Jets, newly acquired running back James Robinson made solid contributionson the ground (13 carries for 48 yards) alongside Michael Carter (12 carriesfor 76 yards and a touchdown) as New York had one of its best showings of the seasonin the run game two weeks ago.

Andfor that reason, Knox gives the Jets a chance to pull off a minor upset as they come off their bye.

"Picking against thePatriots here is obviously risky. Under head coach Bill Belichick, New Englandis 15-7after a bye week, and New England hasn't lost to New York since the 2015season. However, every streak has to end, and I think the Jets are in primeposition to at least come close to ending a losing streak to the Patriots onSunday.

"New York got its groundgame going (174 yards) two weeks ago in a shocking upset of Buffalo afterrushing for only 51 in the first meeting with New England. The Patriots, whoallow 4.7 yards per carry, have been susceptible to the run, but New York onlyrushed 15 times three weeks ago. On paper, the Jets are the better team, andthey've also had two weeks to prepare. I see them sticking with the groundgame, limiting Zach Wilson's mistakes, making this a tightly contested game andperhaps even pulling off the outright upset.”

Predictions

Davenport: Patriots

Ivory: Jets

Knox: Jets

Moton: Jets

O’Donnell: Patriots

Sobleski: Jets

Consensus: Jets +3.5

Score Prediction: Jets 24, Patriots 21

Followinga 25-20 win over the Las Vegas Raiders, Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay felt good abouthiring head coach Jeff Saturday, who took over for Frank Reich last week. TheColts have 52 percent of the public money against the spread as ofWednesday at 4 p.m. ET.

Ourexpert crew chose to pass on a round of Colts Kool-Aid.

Most of the panel went with the Philadelphia Eagles torebound in a big way after their first loss of the season. If you ask any oneof the B/R bettors, they’ll tell you that Saturday’s successful head coaching debut saysmore about the poor state of the Raiders than it does about the Colts’ chanceto turn their season around in unorthodox circ*mstances.

Moton believes the Eagles can use their first defeat as fuel for a sparkling performance with a defense that can take advantage of an offensive line that's weak in pass protection.

"Perhapsthe Eagles needed a loss to wake them up, which doesn’t bode well for theColts, who can run the ball with Jonathan Taylor but lack reliable passprotection to keep quarterback Matt Ryan clean in the pocket. The Coltssignal-caller has taken 25 sacks in eight games—the seventh-mostleaguewide. Philadelphia is tied for the fourth-most sacks (29) with the seventh-highest pressure rate (24.6 percent) across the league "

Predictions

Davenport: Eagles

Ivory: Colts

Knox: Eagles

Moton: Eagles

O’Donnell: Eagles

Sobleski: Eagles

Consensus: Eagles-7

Score Prediction: Eagles 24, Colts14

Sincethe Carolina Panthers fired Matt Rhule after a 37-15 loss to the San Francisco49ers in Week 5, they’ve shown some fight under interim head coach Steve Wilks,going 2-3 with one of those losses in overtime. They’ll look to win consecutivegames for the first time this season as a massive road underdog with Baker Mayfieldunder center in place of PJ Walker (ankle).

Motonacknowledged the Panthers’ competitive spirit, though he didn’t forget their 42-21blowout loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 9.

“ThePanthers haven’t given up on the 2022 season under Wilks, and they’re averaging26.7 points per game over the last three weeks. In Week 9, Mayfield went14-of-20 passing for 155 yards and two touchdowns in relief of Walker, but hedid that in a lopsided loss to the Bengals, who ran through Carolina’s defensefor 241 yards and five scores on the ground.

“Inthat game, running back Joe Mixon had a careerday,rushing for 153 yards and four touchdowns. The Baltimore Ravens’ second-rankedground attack shouldn’t have an issue shredding the Panthers.Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards (if healthy) and Kenyan Drake could run lapsaround Carolina’s run defense Sunday.”

Predictions

Davenport: Ravens

Ivory: Panthers

Knox: Panthers

Moton: Ravens

O’Donnell: Ravens

Sobleski: Panthers

Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Ravens 34, Panthers 20

Rightnow, Justin Fields is the most dynamic dual-threat quarterback in the league. Overthe last three weeks, he’s thrown for seven touchdowns and an interceptionwhile racking up 385 yards and four scores on the ground.

Thoughthe Bears defense has regressed, Fields looks like a one-man show, makingenough plays with his arm and legs to keep Chicago in high-scoring battles. Withthat said, Davenport looked at the win-loss column when he went against ourconsensus to take the Atlanta Falcons.

“Given how it looked last week against a bad CarolinaPanthers team, laying a field goal with Atlanta makes about as much sense as anM. Night Shyamalan movie. In fact, maybe they can get Mark Wahlberg to star ina movie about people who lose their minds and make bad picks and call it The Falconsing.

“Kidding aside, for all the hoopla surrounding Fields, the Bears have still dropped three in a row, including a Week 10loss to the lowly Lions at home. Chicago's 28th-ranked run defense isn'tstopping anyone, and while the Falcons are hardly an offensive juggernaut, theycan run the ball. That's going to enable Atlanta to control the game's tempoand escape Week 11 with a close cover—or at least that's what the lady livingin my pool said.”

Predictions

Davenport: Falcons

Ivory: Bears

Knox: Bears

Moton: Bears

O’Donnell: Bears

Sobleski: Bears

Consensus: Bears+3.5

Score Prediction: Bears 31,Falcons 28

InWeek 10, the Washington Commanders pulled off the biggest upset of the 2022season, going on the road to knock off the previously undefeated PhiladelphiaEagles. As the Commanders come off anemotional high on a short turnaround, they could have a letdown game.

ThoughWashington looked dominant in a 32-21 victory over one of the league’s bestteams, oddsmakers set the line at 3.5 points in favor of the Commanders against theteam with the NFL’s worst record.

Commanders head coach Ron Rivera said quarterback Taylor Heinicke will start Sunday. This year, he's 3-1 in the lead role and has stabilized the offense after the unit had some rocky performances with Carson Wentz (finger surgery) under center.

Ourpanel didn’t think twice about its decision to back Washington, though. Moton thinks the Commanders match up well with the Texans, especially with the potential return of a star defender.

"The Texanshave a rookie sensation in running back Dameon Pierce, who’s fifthin rushing with 772 yards, but the Commanders field a decent run defense that’sallowed the third-fewest scores on the ground and ranks10th in yards allowed per carry (4.4). Furthermore, according to ESPN’s AdamSchefter, Washington is expected to activate Pro Bowl edge-rusher ChaseYoung (torn ACL and MCL) before Sunday’s game."

Predictions

Davenport: Commanders

Ivory: Commanders

Knox: Commanders

Moton: Commanders

O’Donnell: Commanders

Sobleski: Commanders

Consensus: Commanders-3.5

Score Prediction: Commanders 23,Texans 17

LosAngeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp will undergosurgery to repair a high ankle sprain, and the team placed him on injuredreserve. Without him, the NFC West club loses a significant chunk of its passing attack. The 2021 Offensive Player of the Year has accounted for approximately38 percent of the team’s receiving yards this season.

Whilewideouts Allen Robinson II and Van Jefferson along with tight end Tyler Higbeecan produce in expanded pass-catching roles, the Rams won’t have a reliabletarget to carry their 29th-ranked scoring offense that’s racked up thesecond-fewest yards through 10 weeks.

However,Moton picked the Rams to cover if quarterback Matthew Stafford clears concussionprotocol to play Sunday.

“TheRams won’t win many games without Kupp, but if Stafford returns from a one-gameabsence, Los Angeles can cover the spread against the New Orleans Saints, who haven’tscored more than 13 points in either of their last two games,” he said.

“On Wednesday, Saintshead coach Dennis Allen announced that quarterback Andy Dalton will remain the starter (over Jameis Winston). He's thrown for two touchdowns and three interceptions over the last two weeks, which doesn't provide much hope for New Orleans against a decent defensive unit with star playmakers.

“Bothteams will probably struggle to score, so bettors should put their money on thestingier (and healthier) defense that features defensive tackle Aaron Donaldand cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The Saints defense ranks 25th in scoring and 14thin yards allowed (Rams rank 18th and sixth, respectively), and, last week,Allen saidhe didn’t have a timetable for four-time Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore’sreturn.”

Predictions

Davenport: Saints

Ivory: Rams

Knox: Rams

Moton: Rams

O’Donnell: Saints

Sobleski: Rams

Consensus: Rams +4.5

Score Prediction: Rams 20, Saints 17

TheIndianapolis Colts embarrassed the Las Vegas Raiders with an inexperienced head coach in JeffSaturday who took over the job last Monday. The Silver and Black trailed formost of that contest and took a 25-20 defeat at home. Now, the Raiders hit theroad to play the first team that they beat this season.

TheDenver Broncos haven’t made any significant strides since their 32-23 loss tothe Raiders in Week 4. While the Broncos defense remains stout, allowing thefewest points and the second-fewest yards per game, their offense has recordedthe fewest points through 10 weeks. Denver has scored more than 16 points intwo out of nine contests.

Motonremembers how the first game between these teams panned out, but he sees thismatchup as a good one for Russell Wilson.

“Eventhough the Raiders beat the Broncos in their first meeting, Wilson had his bestouting of the season against Vegas’ defense, which ranks 28th inpoints and yards allowed per game. In that contest, he registered a season-high124.9 passer rating and threw for multiple touchdowns, which is something theBroncos signal-caller hasn’t done in any other game in this campaign.

“Through10 weeks, the Raiders have generated the fourth-lowestpressure rate (16.4 percent), and they field the worstred-zone defense (72.4 percent touchdown rate). Wilson will once again performat the level of a top-tier quarterback against a defensive unit that cannotstop anyone, and he'll lead his team to a narrow victory that covers the spread."

Predictions

Davenport: Broncos

Ivory: Broncos

Knox: Broncos

Moton: Broncos

O’Donnell: Broncos

Sobleski: Raiders

Consensus: Broncos-3

Score Prediction: Broncos 24,Raiders, 20

InWeek 10, the Minnesota Vikings beat the Buffalo Bills 33-30 in overtime—quite possiblythe game of the year because of the twists and turns in that contest. Yet theVikings come home as slight home underdogs in a matchup with the DallasCowboys, who lost to a struggling Green Bay Packers squad last week.

Inreality, this is a tossup game for bettors, but Sobleski senses the disrespectfor B/R’s third-best team in its NFLpower rankings headed into Week 11, and he’s not having it.

“Talk about a lack of respect. The Vikings are tied for theleague's best record. They're hosting Dallas this week. Yet they're still dogs,according to Vegas. Granted, the Cowboys are only 1.5-point favorites, but it's customary togive the home team a three-point advantage when it's a tough contest to call.

“Surely,some are predicting a bit of a letdown after Minnesota's unbelievable winagainst the Bills. But everyone should be looking at the fact thatDallas allowed rookie Christian Watson to explode on to the scene with fourcatches for 107 yards and three touchdowns, despite a slow start to the season.Imagine what's going to happen when MVP candidate Justin Jefferson plays thesame secondary. Even if Jefferson is slowed to some degree, the Vikings arebalanced with one of the league's best backs in Dalvin Cook. By the way, theCowboys are counted among the four worst run defenses.”

Predictions

Davenport: Cowboys

Ivory: Vikings

Knox: Cowboys

Moton: Cowboys

O’Donnell: Cowboys

Sobleski: Vikings

Consensus:Cowboys -1.5

Score Prediction: Cowboys 30,Vikings 28

InWeek 10, Pittsburgh Steelers edge-rusher T.J. Watt (pectoral) rejoined a defensiveunit that sorely needed him, and though his box score numbers (four tackles andone quarterback hit) didn’t show it last Sunday, his presence can alter theopposing team’s offensive game plan. The Steelers stifled the New OrleansSaints in a 20-10 win.

Steelershead coach Mike Tomlin is “optimistic”that safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (appendicitis) will be back on the field afterhe missed the previous contest with the Saints.

WithWatt and Fitzpatrick possibly on the field together for the first time sinceWeek 1, don’t read too much into the Steelers’ 30th-ranked pass defense.Moreover, Ja’Marr Chase isn't expected to be back until next week at the earliest, per ESPN’s JeremyFowler.

LikeWeek 1, Davenport and Moton expect a close battle with a slight chance thatPittsburgh sweeps the season series. On the flip side, O’Donnell penciled in arevenge game for Cincinnati.

“This one issimple: It's time for the Bengals to avenge their Week 1 loss to the Steelersin emphatic fashion. Watt's return makes the entire Pittsburgh defensebetter, as we saw last week, and Cincy doesn't have the same offense without Chase; the line makes sense in that regard. This is more of a gut feeling for aBengals team that has yet to win an AFC North game this season. They do it thisweek while covering the spread.”

Predictions

Davenport: Steelers

Ivory: Steelers

Knox: Bengals

Moton: Steelers

O’Donnell: Bengals

Sobleski: Bengals

Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Bengals 27, Steelers 21

InWeek 10, the Los Angeles Chargers barely covered a seven-pointspread in a 22-16 loss to the San Francisco 49ers. They’ll play inconsecutive Sunday Night Football matchups, but this week, head coach BrandonStaley’s group gets a red-hot division rival in the Kansas City Chiefs.

TheChiefs field the highest-scoring offense, which is a big step up from the 49ers’18th-ranked scoring attack.

Nevertheless,Moton has an explanation for why he took the points with Los Angeles.

“TheChargers could run into an offensive buzzsaw, but they may have some firepowerto answer the Chiefs’ aerial attack," he said.

“Staleysaid wideouts Keenan Allen (hamstring)and Mike Williams (ankle) will practice this week. The former has a shakyoutlook because he returned to a limited role (32percent ofthe snaps) in Week 7, but he said his injury 'got worse' during the Chargers’Week 8 bye.

“Williamsseems to have a fair shot to play. The Chargers didn’t place him on injuredreserve after he suffered an ankle injury in Week 7, which would’ve sidelinedhim for four games. They may have thought he had a chance to come back withinthree contests.

“Williamshad time to recover during a bye week, and he missed the previous two outings. Whilehe’s not a lock to play, his presence on the practice field is an encouragingsign. Even at less than 100 percent, the 6’4”, 218-pound wideout can presentsome issues for the Chiefs, who have allowed the most passing touchdowns withthe 25th-ranked pass defense.

“Evenwithout Allen and Williams, wideouts Joshua Palmer and DeAndre Carter, tightend Gerald Everett (if healthy) and running back Austin Ekeler can rack up some yards andscores against one of the league’s most generous pass defenses. As for the Chiefs, wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (illness) missed practiced on Wednesday."

Predictions

Davenport: Chiefs

Ivory: Chiefs

Knox: Chiefs

Moton: Chargers

O’Donnell: Chiefs

Sobleski: Chiefs

Consensus:Chiefs -6.5

Score Prediction: Chiefs 34,Chargers 26

TheSan Francisco 49ers will square off with the Arizona Cardinals in Mexico Cityfor an NFC West Monday Night Football showdown.

This49ers-Cardinals matchup could lose some sizzle if Kyler Murray missesconsecutive outings with a hamstring injury. According to ESPN’s JeremyFowler, Arizona may allow its signal-caller another “week or so” to heal fromthe issue, and the club has confidence in backup quarterback Colt McCoy,who’s 3-1 as a starter under head coach Kliff Kingsbury. The latter is day to day with a knee injury.

Davenportdoesn’t trust a McCoy-led Cardinals offense, and he has numbersagainst the spread that influenced his decision to back the 49ers.

“This call is less about confidence in how great the 49ersare and more about lack of confidence in Arizona's ability to stay in this game. The Redbirdswere able to down the short-handed Rams with Colt McCoy under center last week,but there's a huge difference between beating John 'Surprised as Anyone That He's an NFL QB' Wolford and getting past a 49ers team replete withtalent on both sides of the ball.

“If Murray were 100 percent, then maybe I could seetaking the points. But he's not, and this game is going to get away fromArizona. There's also the matter of the two teams' ATS record inside the division as of late—the Cardinalscovered just one of their last seven NFC West games, while the 49ers have coveredfive in a row.”

Predictions

Davenport: 49ers

Ivory: Cardinals

Knox: Cardinals

Moton: Cardinals

O’Donnell: 49ers

Sobleski: Cardinals

Consensus: Cardinals +8

Score Prediction: 49ers 28,Cardinals 21

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